Oil in Global Economy Series: OPEC June deal compliance review

Posted July 14, 2017

Even a fresh agreement in May, between the OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers, failed to lift price.

"Attempts to curb USA shale out of the market have had muted effects, though it has somewhat rescued oil prices from falling".

"We'll still have below the benchmark set for us by OPEC and I think that over the next one or two months, hopefully, we can get to that point when we can say the recovery has been tested, is systemic, and predictable". According to the latest estimates, compliance declined to 78% for June from 95% in May. The two countries have managed to increase their combined production by more than 700,000 barrels per day in recent months, the IEA said.

The IEA said global oil supply rose by 720,000 barrels per day last month to 97.46 million bpd, 1.2 million bpd higher than previous year, as non-OPEC production increased. This is the most oil Libya had produced since April 2014.

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The IEA report followed the publication of OPEC's regular monthly oil report, which lowered its forecast for worldwide demand for supply from its members next year to around 32.2 million barrels per day.

USA crude oil production, meanwhile, has proven more resilient to historically low crude oil prices than initially expected as operators in the shale basins in the Lower 48 become more efficient.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August CLQ7, -0.04% recently traded down a penny at $45.48 a barrel in the Globex electronic session.

Supply issues will tend to remain the dominant short-term focus with more positive rhetoric from OPEC needed to revive confidence, although choppy trading conditions are liable to continue.

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Oil prices flipped to gains Thursday with growing momentum behind the International Energy Agency's prediction of higher global demand.

OPEC members Libya and Nigeria were exempted from the cuts because of years of unrest that have undermined their oil output.

Given that the total costs for each well in the US are continuously shrinking, at $2.8m to $7m, depending on the geographical location compared to $20m-$30m in Nigeria, and more than $200m for an oil rig in the North Sea, the US Energy Information Administration believes that by 2020, the United States alone will export more oil than most OPEC countries. Libya's output jumped by 127,000 bpd to 852,000 bpd, while Nigerian crude production rose by 96,700 bpd to 1.733 million bpd.

The production rise was expected because Saudi Arabia usually raises output crude this time of year to meet summer electricity demand.

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The global cuts accord between OPEC and non-OPEC producers faced "headwinds" in the first quarter this year and didn't cause crude stockpiles to decline fast enough, Barkindo said.