Rate rise speculation mounts as Q3 GDP rises to 0.4%

Posted October 27, 2017

"Growth in the third quarter continued at a similar rate as seen in the first half of the year", said ONS head of national accounts Darren Morgan.

The productivity puzzle remains, with GDP per person lagging behind the headline growth rate at 0.3 per cent.

As neighbouring eurozone growth accelerates to a decade high of 2.2 per cent this year, United Kingdom growth looks set to slow to a modest 1.6 per cent, well...

Services and manufacturing did well during the quarter, up by 0.4% and 1% respectively.

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The British pound rose shortly after today's growth report, going up 0.25 percent against the U.S. dollar to $1.317.

Questions were raised about the sustainability of Q2 GDP growth, which was driven by retail spending, while manufacturing and construction contracted.

United Kingdom growth gained a little momentum in the third quarter thanks to strong performances in the services sectors and a return to growth for manufacturing, official data revealed on Wednesday.

However, although the GDP data was better than expected it is not strong and there are pockets of weakness that could come under even more pressure if the BoE does hike interest rates.

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The first estimate of UK GDP for the July to September period, due at 9.30am BST, will show how quickly, or slowly, the economy expanded in the last quarter.

Today's healthcheck on the United Kingdom economy is particularly important, as chancellor Philip Hammond weighs up what tax and spending changes to make in November's budget. "Both of these factors are expected to continue weighing down on growth over the rest of this year and into 2018".

Recent months have seen growing speculation that a rate rise could be imminent, with many economists predicting that we may see an increase as early as November.

Computer programming led UK GDP growth in the third quarter of 2017, with activities increasing by 1.9% year-on-year.

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However, he said such a move would be "largely symbolic" as it merely reverses the quarter-per-cent cut that the MPC made past year. That trend would likely reverse if the BoE increases in the base rate back to its previous level.