Jaitley: India has standardised itself for growth rate of 7-8%

Posted December 03, 2017

India's economic growth bounced back from a three-year low, giving the central bank enough ammunition to keep interest rates on hold 6 December amid an uptick in inflationary pressures. That's slower than the 6.4% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 51 economists but faster than 5.7% in the previous quarter.

After sliding for nearly five quarters, country's economy has rebounded from a three-year low to swell by 6.3 per cent in July-September quarter. "Demonetisation and GST's impact is behind us and hopefully, in coming quarters, we can look for an upwards trajectory".

Jaitley further said that impact of demonetisation of high value currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 in November past year was limited to one or two quarters. The growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing was 1.7 per cent, mining and quarrying 5.5 per cent, construction 2.6 per cent, and financial, insurance, real estate and professional services 5.7 per cent.

Jailtey said achieving a 10% economic growth rate is "very challenging" and double-digit GDP growth will depend on how the world economy moves.

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Agricultural growth fell to 1.7 per cent in Q2 from 2.3 per cent in the previous quarter because of a sharp decline in the production of foodgrains during the kharif season.

The expansion in GVA in the first half of the current fiscal has been estimated at 5.8 per cent, down from 7.2 per cent in the year-earlier period.

He said the government reforms to push economic growth are working can be seen from the robust growth of seven percent in manufacturing and 7.1 percent in services in the second quarter of this fiscal.

"My suspicion is that a lot of the claims of the impact of demonetisation in agriculture simply does not account for the presence of such relationships in the sector", he said.

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He added: "People are excited by some of the younger players and the approach we have taken and we have got to build on that". We've got to get that period of training and recovery and freshness right".

His comments come ahead of the second quarter GDP data that will be released by the Central Statistics Economy later this evening.

" The economic activities which registered growth of over 6.0 percent in Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are "manufacturing", "electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and "trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting".

On November 17, Moody's upgraded India's sovereign credit rating for the first time in almost 14 years, saying continued progress on economic and institutional reforms would boost its growth potential.

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